A Peek at ‘Big Data’:Target, Walmart, and Your Kids’ Christmas Wish-Lists

We hear a lot about ‘Big Data’ these days. With mountains of information about the lives and behaviors of consumers, voters, residents, activists, companies, etc., firms in virtually every industry can make shockingly accurate predictions about what we’ll spend money on this holiday season or how we’ll vote in 2016. Big data is the alchemy of the Information Age. So it can be especially fun to watch two retail giants use it in two totally different ways.

Walmart and Target, with the approach of the Christmas shopping season, have each released a wish list for kids.

Walmart’s 20 Toys Kids Most Want list was compiled by polling kids themselves. Target’s 30+ Toys Kids Most Want list was created by partnering “with top manufacturers to identify the hottest kids’ gifts for the season.” This list includes lesser-known, “boutique brands (that) typically feature toys with no connections to trends or media tie-ins, instead choosing to focus on educational ideas like discovery and imagination.”

Which will be more effective? On one hand, Walmart’s consumer-centric strategy puts the wants of consumers at the top of its list, but uses well-known brands and toys that the kids are already knowledgeable about. An ‘everyone-else-gets-one-I-want-one-too’ mentality, from the viewpoint of the children.

On the other hand, Target’s approach involves the R&D compiled by top manufacturers and incorporates toys children may not even know they want yet. A ‘shiny-new-toy-that-no-one-else-has-but-me’ approach, from the viewpoint of the children.

This begs the question: does your kid know what he/she wants or does a research firm know better? Is it better to meet the customer or lead her? We may have a better guess after this Christmas season.

Of course, there are a number of complicating factors. Already, more people shop at Target than Walmart for Christmas toys. According to this AdAge demographic breakdown of major retailers, Target has a more-female customer base, which is also slightly younger and more affluent. These statistics alone suggest that Target will get more of a bump during the Christmas season, regardless of the relative success of this ‘wish list’ campaign. (After all, affluent 25 to 34-year-old women are more likely than 45-and-over single men to have children with extensive Christmas lists.) There are also regional and cultural differences which could make the comparison less straight forward.

Nonetheless, the contrast between the two companies’ approaches to suggested-shopping for Christmas raises an interesting question for marketers. Is it better to meet or lead people? Which works better, and which gets them to what they really want, regardless of whether they’re aware of the desire ahead of time?

Sure, Steve Jobs famously told companies to disregard what customers think they want – to forge ahead and create the thing they will want tomorrow. But that doesn’t always work. Sometimes, when little Johnny asks for Legos, Legos are what Johnny wants, end of story. No amount of research, polling, forecasting, or trend-watching will change that. Then again, when a company can predict a trend and get in front of it, that’s where massive growth happens. After all: Steve Jobs was Steve Jobs.

One thing is for certain. Target and Walmart are giving us a chance to see if Big Data really has transformed the relationship between buyer and seller so much that we no longer know best what we want.